Rival.
A meme bot trading real SOL on Solana, built in the open. Research-first, every gate pre-registered, real money in tiny size on a confirm-on-chain money path. A paper research lab runs alongside it to test new ideas before they ever touch a dollar.
Where it stands
Real money is not a phase on this strip. It only happens if the paper book wins its confidence interval — and that call is never made by the bot.
The live bot
Real money, tiny size, on a confirm-on-chain money path (every fill verified on Solana before it's booked — no phantom trades). On-curve pump.fun tokens only, $4 clips, hard kill at −$15.
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The idea lab
Everything below is paper — a simulated $1,000 where new ideas are pre-registered and tested at brutally honest fills before any of them earn a real dollar. Green here is a hypothesis, not profit.
Does it get better?
An ML model learns from every resolved launch — which setups became runners, which rugged — and retrains on a rolling window. This is the honest scoreboard: real out-of-time AUC per retrain, no fabricated curve. A flat or falling line is a real result too.
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What it will and won't buy
Every gate below traces to a measured result — ours, the sibling's, or published research. Nothing is vibes.
Launch-time metadata first
The largest published study (833k launches) predicts graduation at concordance 0.858 from metadata alone — socials at launch are an 8.9–17x lift, creator self-buy above 30 SOL a 4.5x hazard ratio. Rival reads these at t=0, before a single candle.
Validated-wallet confluence
The only entry signal this machine ever validated with a confidence interval that excludes losing: a CI-floor-positive KOL buying within a 30-minute window. Rival inherits it as its highest tier.
Wash-trade veto
21.4% of pre-migration transactions are same-transaction wash trades, and early volume is the most contaminated volume a token will ever print. One cheap check strips it before any volume gate reads.
Don't buy the insider exit
Coordinated snipers are 85% fully exited within 5 minutes of launch. Rival's entry window is placed to avoid being their liquidity — and its entry timestamps get audited against that distribution.
Exit like the theory says
Optimal-stopping theory at memecoin volatility says: bank it. Arm-floor ladder (winners only scale out), hard stop, and a time stop — with fine-grained price paths recorded from entry for honest backtests.
Pre-registered, or it doesn't ship
Every threshold gets its bar set before the data is peeked. The graveyard of this project is full of filters that looked great after the fact — the kill list is why this page exists.
Rival vs the MacBook
Same metric, same window: paper fund trajectory and hit-rate by tier, compared over identical dates. No cherry-picking — whichever system's book is better after its confidence interval resolves, wins.